Revista de Humanidades y Ciencias Sociales (Santa Cruz de la Sierra)
versão impressa ISSN 1819-0545
VASQUEZ, Bismarck J. Arevilca e CHARQUERO, Wiston Adrián Risso. The balance of payments constrained growth model: empirical evidence for Bolivia, 1953-2002.Traduzido porJeremy Jordan. Rev. humanid. cienc. soc. (St. Cruz Sierra) [online]. 2007, vol.3Selected edition, pp. 0-0. ISSN 1819-0545.
Much of the theoretical and empirical literature has focused on supply factors when studying economic growth determinants, leaving aside demand factors. The present study, instead, analyzes external demand factors as determinants of Bolivian economic growth between 1953-2002 utilizing models introduced by Thirlwall (1979). According to cointegration analysis, exports were an important determinant in Bolivian economic growth for the whole period. Later analysis of other variables showed that real exchange rates presented a negative relationship in respect to long term growth. Further results show that Bolivian imports are more elastic than exports before a growth of the GDP, producing a negative impact on the trade balance. Our hypothesis is that the economic model implemented since 1985 has increased the external constraint of the country causing a process of "deindustrialization".